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ADVANCED RANKINGS


If you want to skip directly to the various advanced ranking tables,
you can click here. If you want the heatmap, click here.



This is the advanced rankings page. Below are the rankings of the various individual metrics that make up each team's weekly ranking. The weekly ranking is then combined (with weighting) with the previous weeks' rankings to determine the final ranking presented on the rankings page.

The following are descriptions of each metric:
  • Winning percentage (W%) is a team's wins divided by the number of games played, in other words: it's the team's record expressed as a single number;
  • Close-game winning percentage (CGW%) is a team's winning percentage with the outcomes of close games (4-point margin or less) reversed (e.g. if Team A beat Team B by 3, Team A's record is 1-0, but its close game record would be 0-1);
  • 1/2 winning percentage is a team's winning percentage starting at .500 (to temper extremes in the regular winning percentage);
  • Simple Rating System (SRS) is a rating system based on margin of victory, points scored, points allowed, and strength of schedule as calculated by Pro-Football-Reference;
  • Football Power Index (FPI) is another rating system maintained by ESPN;
  • Power Rankings (PR) is an average of power rankings put out by various media outlets including the NFL, ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC, CBS, Bleacher Report, Yahoo Sports, Massey Ratings, and TeamRankings;
  • NFL Futures (SB) is an average of five sets of Super Bowl odds put out by various sports books like FanDuel, Rivers, MGM, etc.; and
  • Against the Spread Record (ASpW%) is a ranking of a team's record against the spread.
  • A very simplified ELO Rating (ELO) where each game result is assigned point values each week based on the teams' rankings and whether the favorite or underdog won. If the underdog wins, they earn points equal to the inverse of the favorite's ranking (on a scale of 1 to 32), and the favorite loses points equal to the underdog's ranking. If the favorite wins, they earn points equal to the inverse of the underdog's ranking, and the underdog loses points equal to the favorite's ranking. For example, if Team A, ranked 4th loses to Team B, ranked 25, then Team A loses 25 points, and Team B earns 29 points. If Team A wins, they earn 8 points, and Team B loses 4 points. All teams start with a point value of 544 points (32 points multiplied by 17 games in a regular season; essentially guaranteeing that no team can go below in a season), and results are added to or subtracted from the running total for each team, each week. In the examples above, after week 1 if Team A won, then Team A would have a total of 552 points, and Team B would have a total of 540, going into week 2. Underdogs winning result in larger point swings because those outcomes are unexpected. Favorites winning result in smaller point totals because those outcomes are expected.
Each of the above metrics is then weighted, and the rankings are averaged together according to those weights. Because early in the season some factors like winning percentage or SRS can fluctuate significantly from week to week, the weights are heavier for the power rankings and sportsbooks as those rely more on the "eye test". However, once we get to week 5 of the season, the more objective, numbers-based metrics carry the heavier weights. The current weights for the metrics are listed below:

W%:17.0%
CGW%:12.0%
1/2W%:9.0%
SRS:10.0%
FPI:10.0%
PR:15.0%
SB:13.0%
ASpW%:4.0%
ELO:10.0%

Finally, once each metric is weighted and combined to determine teams' weekly rankings, those weekly rankings are then combined with previous weeks' rankings to determine the final ranking presented on the rankings page. This is what I call the heatmap ranking (as it is calculated using the ranking heatmap). The final rankings are determined by averaging each prior week's ranking by half. In other words and for example: in week 3, a team's week 3 ranking counts for 50%, week 2's ranking for 25% and week 1's for 12.5%. The remaining 12.5% is divided by the number of weeks (3 in this example) and added back to each week's allocation (3: 54.17%, 2: 29.17%, 3: 16.66%) to total 100%. So in this example, if a team was ranked 1st, 5th, and 9th in weeks 1, 2, and 3, respectively, the team's overall ranking would be roughly 4th (with the math working out to a final weighted ranking of 3.4996).

The whole idea behind determining final rankings this way is to prevent a fluke week from changing the rankings drastically. If polls and prognosticators figured a team was worthy of a number one ranking, but they stumble at the start of the season due to bad luck, there is still merit to the assessment that they're a good team. But a few losses can significantly impact the numbers-side of these rankings. So, ensuring that past weeks' rankings still carry some weight, without overshadowing the team's most recent results, allows for a steadier, less-varied ranking system.

Also presented at the bottom of this page are the "percentiles" for each ranking category. The numbers in that table are derived from each of the various metrics explained above. Each "percentile" ties the actual values for each metric to a 0 to 100 scale (with further modifications to weight each) where the best value for each metric is 100, the worst is 0, and the rest are distributed between 0 and 100 in proportion to where the individual metric falls on that scale in relation to the max and min. The twelve ranking metrics listed are categorized by importance, (1, 2, or 3) and thus divided by that number. So for example, if a category 1 element is the highest for a given metric and therefore 100, the number here would be 100. If the metric were a category 3, then that 100 would be 33.3. These categories are indicated by the superscripts next to the metrics' names.

Please note: Last year, the heatmap also appeared at the bottom of this page. That has now moved to its own page. Please see the heatmap here.




RANKING TABLES



Weekly Rankings (by Category) Table
Combined Winning Percentages
Power Rankings
Sportsbooks NFL Futures
Statistics-Based Rankings
ELO Ratings
Percentiles

WEEKLY RANKING

TeamW%rCGW%r1/2W%rSRSrFPIrPRrSBrAtSrELOrWghtd AvgRANK
SEA3231211121.831
LAR3132152112.392
NE14161225494.483
JAX38331048144.954
DEN1811011332235.285
HOU6464867955.896
SF68659711567.117
BUF646878616117.338
PHI98911394677.639
GB13313145129251211.1110
CHI91391715101061011.1611
LAC91891513111214811.7712
DET141314941415161312.5113
PIT1213121817121391513.5814
BAL168161361615301914.6715
IND161316721181591614.9616
MIN14181416271615161416.3217
ATL16131620242015141817.4918
KC2372312202215292018.5619
CAR1631162125151462118.6020
TB16281619191915321718.8921
DAL21272123182115252221.0522
CIN23232326142315162321.2323
NYG2823282116271592622.7824
WAS25182527222615252423.0225
MIA22222228312415162623.0826
NO2528252523241593023.5327
CLE25232529322815162524.7028
ARI30183024262915303125.7229
NYJ28282832303215222927.4330
LV30233031283115253227.4431
TEN30323030293015222827.6432

COMBINED WINNING PERCENTAGES

TeamW%CGW%1/2W%AtSAvg.RANK
NE0.8240.7060.7890.6760.7781
LAR0.7650.8820.7370.7060.7772
SEA0.7650.7650.7370.7060.7533
DEN0.8240.5880.7890.4410.7314
JAX0.7650.5880.7370.7060.7185
HOU0.7060.7060.6840.5290.6846
BUF0.7060.7060.6840.4710.6787
SF0.7060.5880.6840.6180.6698
PHI0.6470.5880.6320.5880.6269
CHI0.6470.5290.6320.5880.61510
LAC0.6470.4710.6320.5000.59411
GB0.5590.7350.5530.4120.57812
PIT0.5880.5290.5790.5290.56913
DET0.5290.5290.5260.4710.52314
MIN0.5290.4710.5260.4710.51115
IND0.4710.5290.4740.5290.48916
ATL0.4710.5290.4740.5000.48617
BAL0.4710.5880.4740.3530.48318
CAR0.4710.2350.4740.5880.43619
MIA0.4120.4120.4210.4710.42020
TB0.4710.2940.4740.2940.41821
KC0.3530.6470.3680.3820.41822
DAL0.4410.3240.4470.4120.41623
CIN0.3530.3530.3680.4710.36824
WAS0.2940.4710.3160.4120.34625
CLE0.2940.3530.3160.4710.32826
NO0.2940.2940.3160.5290.32227
NYG0.2350.3530.2630.5290.29428
NYJ0.2350.2940.2630.4410.27329
ARI0.1760.4710.2110.3530.26030
LV0.1760.3530.2110.4120.24231
TEN0.1760.1180.2110.4410.19832

WEEKLY POWER RANKINGS

TeamNFLESPNSINBCCBSB/RYAHOOMASSEYTRAVG.RANK
SEA1111111121.001
NE2122224672.632
DEN41344324103.133
JAX3163369344.254
LAR71410547215.005
HOU6185895535.886
SF9196673796.007
BUF51789510856.638
CHI81117710610177.509
PHI101591088987.509
LAC111101111111111169.6311
PIT1211212131313121811.0012
GB1311314121212151411.5013
CAR1411415141414212513.3814
MIN16151513171515141515.0015
DET1715151616151513615.2516
BAL15151518151515161115.5017
TB18151521181515181916.8818
ATL20151517231515192117.3819
IND19151520241515171317.5020
DAL21151519191515222017.6321
CIN22151523201515242218.6322
NO23151522221515252819.0023
MIA25151524211515232719.1324
KC24151525251515201219.2525
WAS26151527271515272320.8826
NYG28151526261515282421.0027
CLE27151528281515262921.1328
ARI30151530291515292622.2529
TEN29151529301515313022.3830
LV32151531321515303123.1331
NYJ31151532311515323223.2532

WEEKLY SELECTED SPORTSBOOKS
Odds to win the Super Bowl

TeamMGMDftKngCaesarsFanDuelRiversAverageRank
SEA3603753303753703621
LAR4254254254304504312
DEN6506506506507006603
PHI8508509508507508504
NE1000100090090010009605
BUF1000100010001000100010006
HOU1100130012001200110011807
JAX1400150013001400130013808
GB2200220025002400190022409
CHI22002200250023002200228010
SF28002800300024003300286011
LAC30003000300030003000300012
PIT50005000500050005000500013
CAR20000200002000020000225002050014
BAL30000300003000030000300003000015
TB30000300003000030000300003000015
IND30000300003000030000300003000015
DET30000300003000030000300003000015
DAL30000300003000030000300003000015
KC30000300003000030000300003000015
CIN30000300003000030000300003000015
MIA30000300003000030000300003000015
MIN30000300003000030000300003000015
WAS30000300003000030000300003000015
ATL30000300003000030000300003000015
CLE30000300003000030000300003000015
NYJ30000300003000030000300003000015
ARI30000300003000030000300003000015
LV30000300003000030000300003000015
NO30000300003000030000300003000015
TEN30000300003000030000300003000015
NYG30000300003000030000300003000015

WEEKLY COMPUTER/STATISTICAL RANKINGS

TeamSRSFPIAverageRanking
LAR12.506.509.501
SEA12.805.709.252
HOU8.603.105.853
JAX8.702.705.704
SF6.003.004.505
NE5.502.403.956
BUF4.503.303.907
DET3.903.803.858
PHI2.803.903.359
DEN3.502.603.0510
GB1.003.702.3511
BAL1.103.402.2512
LAC0.802.101.4513
IND5.00-2.401.3014
CHI0.500.700.6015
KC1.90-1.900.0016
PIT0.10-0.20-0.0517
TB-1.10-1.70-1.4018
CIN-5.101.60-1.7519
NYG-3.600.10-1.7520
DAL-4.10-1.30-2.7021
MIN0.70-6.60-2.9522
ATL-2.80-3.60-3.2023
CAR-3.60-4.50-4.0524
NO-4.90-3.40-4.1525
WAS-5.70-3.20-4.4526
ARI-4.40-5.10-4.7527
MIA-6.30-9.70-8.0028
TEN-8.00-8.60-8.3029
CLE-7.40-9.90-8.6530
LV-10.50-7.10-8.8031
NYJ-12.50-9.50-11.0032

SIMPLIFIED ELO RATINGS

TeamELORANK
LAR7171
SEA7162
DEN7103
JAX6954
HOU6825
SF6476
PHI6387
LAC6378
NE6249
CHI61610
BUF60711
GB59912
DET59513
MIN58714
PIT56815
IND55216
TB53317
ATL53218
BAL50919
KC50120
CAR49921
DAL48022
CIN45223
WAS44324
CLE43925
MIA43726
NYG43726
TEN39528
NYJ39029
NO38930
ARI38631
LV38332

WEEKLY PERCENTILES

TeamW%pOpDpSRSpFPIpCGW%p1/2W%pPRpSBpAtSpELOpSUM
SEA90.983.8100.050.047.628.230.350.033.333.333.2580.63
LAR90.9100.079.949.450.033.330.342.533.333.333.3576.33
NE100.089.987.235.637.525.633.345.732.731.024.1542.49
JAX90.984.179.941.938.420.530.343.332.233.331.1525.99
HOU81.858.898.641.739.625.627.340.432.419.029.8495.23
DEN100.057.891.331.638.120.533.344.033.011.932.6494.19
BUF81.886.666.733.640.225.627.338.532.614.322.4469.60
SF81.870.863.936.639.320.527.338.730.526.226.3461.94
PHI72.749.884.930.242.120.524.236.132.823.825.4442.64
LAC72.745.878.126.336.615.424.230.030.416.725.3401.59
CHI72.772.243.825.732.317.924.233.931.223.823.3401.10
GB59.154.268.926.741.526.919.726.931.29.521.6386.18
PIT63.656.356.624.929.617.921.226.928.119.018.5362.76
DET54.586.644.732.441.817.918.221.60.014.321.2353.32
IND45.581.245.234.622.917.915.215.60.019.016.9313.98
BAL45.566.151.626.940.520.515.220.00.04.812.6303.50
MIN54.537.281.326.110.115.418.220.00.014.320.4297.32
KC27.343.783.628.524.423.19.112.50.07.111.8270.95
ATL45.540.450.219.219.217.915.213.90.016.714.9253.07
CAR45.525.359.817.616.55.115.220.710.723.811.6251.62
TB45.550.245.722.525.07.715.215.40.00.015.0242.03
DAL40.983.00.016.626.29.013.613.70.09.59.7222.28
CIN27.362.58.714.635.110.39.111.30.014.36.9199.91
NYG9.150.532.917.630.510.33.06.30.019.05.4184.56
MIA36.438.339.712.30.612.812.19.10.014.35.4180.97
WAS18.241.527.413.420.415.46.16.70.09.56.0164.65
NO18.215.247.915.019.87.76.19.10.019.00.6158.66
CLE18.213.760.310.10.010.36.14.80.014.35.6143.25
ARI0.041.210.516.014.615.40.03.40.04.80.3106.11
NYJ9.129.614.20.01.27.73.00.00.011.90.777.39
LV0.00.036.14.08.510.30.00.50.09.50.068.82
TEN0.015.515.18.94.00.00.02.20.011.91.258.71



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